Comments for Our Finite World http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com Just another WordPress.com weblog Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:36:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU Comment on Is This a False Alarm? by New Guy Not Expert http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/#comment-715 New Guy Not Expert Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:00:35 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/#comment-715 In my humble opinion, no I don't think it's a false alarm. I think that give or take a little bit one way or the other the world is producing about as much now as it can ever and with the finding of fewer and smaller, more-expensive-to-extract discoveries in ever more remote locations, and the natural decline of mature giant oil fields the world is probably on that plateau of production, not going to get much higher a daily rate if at all, and soon to start slipping off that plateau to lower and lower production as the years go by. It's definitely a geological limitation, not some temporary problem. That's what it sure seems like to me anyway. I think you guys are right on. In my humble opinion, no I don’t think it’s a false alarm. I think that give or take a little bit one way or the other the world is producing about as much now as it can ever and with the finding of fewer and smaller, more-expensive-to-extract discoveries in ever more remote locations, and the natural decline of mature giant oil fields the world is probably on that plateau of production, not going to get much higher a daily rate if at all, and soon to start slipping off that plateau to lower and lower production as the years go by. It’s definitely a geological limitation, not some temporary problem. That’s what it sure seems like to me anyway. I think you guys are right on.

]]> Comment on Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem? by 220vBrain http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/04/22/our-world-is-finite-is-this-a-problem/#comment-714 220vBrain Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:51:10 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/04/22/our-world-is-finite-is-this-a-problem/#comment-714 We are the point now, where the EARTH has reached PEAK everything. Peak fish in the oceans, Peak agriculture-farming, Peak fresh water, Peak petroleum products, Peak metal ores, Peak fresh air,Peaked safe atmosphere, And the biggest one of all; PEAK HUMANS on the planet! EVERYTHING has Peaked, There is no more to be discovered or invented out of thin air. We are now facing shortages of everything.Massive suffering and death are just around the corner. Plagues,Diease,Famine,Murders,Heinous Crimes,Endless War,Prison Labor camps,Slavery,Genocide,Euthanasia,Infantcide,Excecutions,and Corruption on a scale never before seen are all coming as PEAK EVERYTHING tightens it's death grip on the planet. How can the world continue to think that they can still pump out babies by the millions per year, exponentially pushing the over all population toward more BILLIONS when there isn't enough of anything to keep them all alive now? We need to cut the population by 6.5 billion now, and continue to cut it, until maybe there are no more than 250,000 world wide by 2050. It is that serious. Mankind is a stupid creature. It is the only animal on the planet that destroys it's own habitat, and slaughters every other living along the way, and then arrogantly claims it has the right to do it! To believe MAN will all of a sudden become ENLIGHTENED and MIRACULOUSLY save himself from himself, and the planet as well, is pure garbage thinking. It will never happen. Get over it! It is my sincerest hope, that the EARTH has had enough of Human Beings, and will wipe them out. Or at the very least, shorten their life span to about 25 years and that is it. Mankind does not deserve to be allowed to exist as the dominate species. Not now, not ever again... Spare me your religious crap trap, and satanic biblical quotes! All religion is pure manure of the mind. We are the point now, where the EARTH has reached PEAK everything.
Peak fish in the oceans, Peak agriculture-farming, Peak fresh water, Peak petroleum products, Peak metal ores, Peak fresh air,Peaked safe atmosphere, And the biggest one of all; PEAK HUMANS on the planet!
EVERYTHING has Peaked, There is no more to be discovered or invented out of thin air. We are now facing shortages of everything.Massive suffering and death are just around the corner.
Plagues,Diease,Famine,Murders,Heinous Crimes,Endless War,Prison Labor camps,Slavery,Genocide,Euthanasia,Infantcide,Excecutions,and
Corruption on a scale never before seen are all coming as PEAK EVERYTHING tightens it’s death grip on the planet.

How can the world continue to think that they can still pump out babies by the millions per year, exponentially pushing the over all population toward more BILLIONS when there isn’t enough of anything to keep them all alive now? We need to cut the population by 6.5 billion now, and continue to cut it, until maybe there are no more than 250,000 world wide by 2050. It is that serious.

Mankind is a stupid creature. It is the only animal on the planet that destroys it’s own habitat, and slaughters every other living along the way, and then arrogantly claims it has the right to do it! To believe MAN will all of a sudden become ENLIGHTENED and MIRACULOUSLY save himself from himself, and the planet as well, is pure garbage thinking. It will never happen. Get over it!

It is my sincerest hope, that the EARTH has had enough of Human Beings, and will wipe them out. Or at the very least, shorten their life span to about 25 years and that is it. Mankind does not deserve to be allowed to exist as the dominate species. Not now, not ever again…

Spare me your religious crap trap, and satanic biblical quotes!
All religion is pure manure of the mind.

]]> Comment on Peak Oil: What’s Ahead? by New Guy Not Expert http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/08/06/peak-oil-whats-ahead/#comment-713 New Guy Not Expert Thu, 10 Jul 2008 18:41:50 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/08/06/peak-oil-whats-ahead/#comment-713 Great article! Hello everybody. I agree that there will be a great slide backwards in humanity's standard of living as world oil production slides off of the "peak plateau" or whatever one calls it, felt more acutely the more developed a country is as it will be a greater contrast with what they're accustomed to nowadays. As I was reading this thought-provoking article an idea occurred to me that perhaps in the future people will go back to coal-burning steam engines and have steam-powered tractors for agriculture, steam-powered trains etc., basically going back to before the internal combustion engine. Granted this would be disastrous from a carbon emission point-of-view considering how much the world's population has grown since steam engines were last the norm, but is it possible that it could end up that way regardless, with a higher standard of living (over being able to use only manual labor I mean) in the (then-)current time considered a higher priority than not destroying the environment in the (relatively-)longer term? I'm rather new to the whole Peak Oil discussion so this could be something that has already long since been thought of and rejected, I don't know. But it just popped into my head when I was reading the article. Great article! Hello everybody. I agree that there will be a great slide backwards in humanity’s standard of living as world oil production slides off of the “peak plateau” or whatever one calls it, felt more acutely the more developed a country is as it will be a greater contrast with what they’re accustomed to nowadays. As I was reading this thought-provoking article an idea occurred to me that perhaps in the future people will go back to coal-burning steam engines and have steam-powered tractors for agriculture, steam-powered trains etc., basically going back to before the internal combustion engine. Granted this would be disastrous from a carbon emission point-of-view considering how much the world’s population has grown since steam engines were last the norm, but is it possible that it could end up that way regardless, with a higher standard of living (over being able to use only manual labor I mean) in the (then-)current time considered a higher priority than not destroying the environment in the (relatively-)longer term? I’m rather new to the whole Peak Oil discussion so this could be something that has already long since been thought of and rejected, I don’t know. But it just popped into my head when I was reading the article.

]]> Comment on About by Tom L http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/about/#comment-712 Tom L Wed, 09 Jul 2008 20:06:01 +0000 #comment-712 The IEA has a world oil survey available as a free download showing oil flow of products by country. http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/surveys/oilsurv.pdf The IEA has a world oil survey available as a free download showing oil flow of products by country.

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/surveys/oilsurv.pdf

]]> Comment on Oil Quiz - Test Your Knowledge by jay ell http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/03/16/oil-quiz-test-your-knowledge/#comment-709 jay ell Tue, 10 Jun 2008 04:18:25 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/03/16/oil-quiz-test-your-knowledge/#comment-709 one of the environmental problems i hear about nuclear energy is how to dispose of the spent fuel. i do not fully understand the decay process, and the nature of the residuals, but would like to know why we can't just take the original nuclear material from its place of origin, use it for production of electricity until it has decayed, and then just take the residuals back to its original location and bury it. It was there to begin with, doing no harm, so why not just return it to its original position? one of the environmental problems i hear about nuclear energy is how to dispose of the spent fuel. i do not fully understand the decay process, and the nature of the residuals, but would like to know why we can’t just take the original nuclear material from its place of origin, use it for production of electricity until it has decayed, and then just take the residuals back to its original location and bury it. It was there to begin with, doing no harm, so why not just return it to its original position?

]]> Comment on Peak Oil: What’s Ahead? by straightener http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/08/06/peak-oil-whats-ahead/#comment-708 straightener Tue, 03 Jun 2008 06:40:48 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/08/06/peak-oil-whats-ahead/#comment-708 Straightener says : I absolutely agree with this ! Straightener says : I absolutely agree with this !

]]> Comment on Introduction to Peak Oil - Collection of Articles by Marisa Cohen http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/11/19/introduction-to-peak-oil-collection-of-articles/#comment-706 Marisa Cohen Wed, 28 May 2008 20:33:20 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/11/19/introduction-to-peak-oil-collection-of-articles/#comment-706 I have a stupid question to ask: What is the amount of oil that the world as a whole consumes a day ? I mean, how many barrels are used daily ? It is urgent to know. I have found the number somewhere , but I cannot remember it now. Can someone help, please ? Maria Luisa ( Marisa) Cohen President Assisi Nature Council I have a stupid question to ask:

What is the amount of oil that the world as a whole consumes a day ?
I mean, how many barrels are used daily ?

It is urgent to know.
I have found the number somewhere , but I cannot remember it now.
Can someone help, please ?
Maria Luisa ( Marisa) Cohen
President Assisi Nature Council

]]> Comment on What Is Peak Oil? by Peak Oil - Pick a Curve « The Decline of American Civilization http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/what-is-peak-oil/#comment-705 Peak Oil - Pick a Curve « The Decline of American Civilization Sat, 03 May 2008 04:22:54 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/what-is-peak-oil/#comment-705 [...] source [...] [...] source [...]

]]> Comment on Corn-Based Ethanol: Is This a Solution? by Food, fuel and the price of rice: a WWO preja-vu « World Without Oil - serious game for the public good http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/05/29/corn-based-ethanol-is-this-a-solution/#comment-704 Food, fuel and the price of rice: a WWO preja-vu « World Without Oil - serious game for the public good Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:49:29 +0000 http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/05/29/corn-based-ethanol-is-this-a-solution/#comment-704 [...] been apparent to some from the start, and WWO player GailTheActuary laid them out pretty clearly in this post back during the game. But it’s still strange to see this sort of unintuited ramification of [...] [...] been apparent to some from the start, and WWO player GailTheActuary laid them out pretty clearly in this post back during the game. But it’s still strange to see this sort of unintuited ramification of [...]

]]> Comment on About by Murray Duffin http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/about/#comment-703 Murray Duffin Fri, 18 Apr 2008 22:26:30 +0000 #comment-703 Gail, I am a lurker in disagreement with your March TOD piece on the economic impact of peak oil. I hoped to write a detailed reply, but for various valid reasons cannot find the time. Also I don't know how to submit a contribution to TOD. As a result I have come up with the following quick summary of another scenario that I feel is more likely than yours. Please give it due consideration. USA present production is >5mb/d. Running that down carefully and working over all of our old fields with modern technology should provide 2-3 mb/d for at least 30 years. Canadian tar-sand can provide us with 2-3 mb/d for the foreseeable future by 2015 or so.. The Bakken shales should have recoverable oil of >20 Gb, and can likely supply 2-3 mb/d for > 20 years, starting in 20 years starting in say 10 years. We should be able to maintain imports of >2 mb/d for decades. Biofuels of all kinds can easily provide 1 mb/d for as long as we need. That adds up to 60% of present consumption. Our imports ex-Canada can drop from the present 13 mb/d to 2 mb/d over 15-20 years, while we increase fuel use efficiency by factor 3 and we can continues to grow our economy at a modest rate, giving us some decades to evolve to a no growth economy. Trip efficiency and intelligent conservation can provide a cushion as needed of up to 4 mb/d during the transition. This scenario allows for non-Canadian imports dropping 8%/yr for 20 years while we make the needed adjustments. Even staying 100% with ICEs we can triple automotive fuel efficiency. Hybrids, BEVs, switch to rail, etc., will provide the needed additional efficiency for trucks and planes to get the entire transport sector to >3x. As global warming ceases to be an issue, and scarcity/price bite, we will open all of the off-limits prospects to development. Gail, I am a lurker in disagreement with your March TOD piece on the economic impact of peak oil. I hoped to write a detailed reply, but for various valid reasons cannot find the time. Also I don’t know how to submit a contribution to TOD. As a result I have come up with the following quick summary of another scenario that I feel is more likely than yours. Please give it due consideration.
USA present production is >5mb/d. Running that down carefully and working over all of our old fields with modern technology should provide 2-3 mb/d for at least 30 years. Canadian tar-sand can provide us with 2-3 mb/d for the foreseeable future by 2015 or so.. The Bakken shales should have recoverable oil of >20 Gb, and can likely supply 2-3 mb/d for > 20 years, starting in 20 years starting in say 10 years. We should be able to maintain imports of >2 mb/d for decades. Biofuels of all kinds can easily provide 1 mb/d for as long as we need. That adds up to 60% of present consumption. Our imports ex-Canada can drop from the present 13 mb/d to 2 mb/d over 15-20 years, while we increase fuel use efficiency by factor 3 and we can continues to grow our economy at a modest rate, giving us some decades to evolve to a no growth economy. Trip efficiency and intelligent conservation can provide a cushion as needed of up to 4 mb/d during the transition. This scenario allows for non-Canadian imports dropping 8%/yr for 20 years while we make the needed adjustments. Even staying 100% with ICEs we can triple automotive fuel efficiency. Hybrids, BEVs, switch to rail, etc., will provide the needed additional efficiency for trucks and planes to get the entire transport sector to >3x.
As global warming ceases to be an issue, and scarcity/price bite, we will open all of the off-limits prospects to development.

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