About
GailTheActuary’s real name is Gail Tverberg. She has a M. S. from the University of Illinois in Mathematics, is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, and is a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries.
Gail became interested in the subject of peak oil in late 2005. She has written two articles for the insurance industry related to peak oil and resource shortages:
Oil Shortages: The Next Katrinna?
Our Finite World: Implications for Actuaries
Gail is on the staff of TheOilDrum.com as a Contributor. TheOilDrum is one of the top sites with respect to peak oil, energy shortages, and expected impacts on our future. A recent survey TheOilDrum readers indicates that 40% have postgraduate degrees.
Most of the articles on this site have been published by the TheOilDrum. Most have also appeared in EnergyBulletin.net.
The articles on this web site are intended to give readers an overview of the issues our world is now facing because we are reaching the limits of the earth’s resources. If desired, these articles can be used as an educational resource in a college classroom setting. To facilitate this type of use, many of the articles have additional readings and discussion questions included. PDFs of articles are also available
Gail Tverberg is available to provide consulting services relating to peak oil and other related issues. This is a link to another web site providing more information on this.
RedHatty said
What a great post! You need to join us in the campaign! Be a Netizen Hero!
http://www.worldwithoutoil.org/addhero.aspx
Thanks!
RedHatty
Michael said
Keep up the great work. If you stand back from all the data and just take a general over view of whats happening it all starts to make sense. The sudden massive rush into ethanol plants,Iraq, the calm on the markets of a $93 dollar barrel of oil, Where is the panic? Why is there no panic?
winston smith said
GAIL GREAT WRITING AND RESEARCH BUT IF THE SUBJECT ISNT ABOUT OVERPOPULATION NOT WORTH TALKING ABOUT. YOU GIVE ALL THESE BS CHARTS BUT YOUR NOT ADDRESSING THE ONLY PROBLEM
WE ARE TOO MANY AND WE CONSUME TOO DAM MUCH! GO TELL THAT TO THE COLLEGE GROUP, THATS REALITY AND THE ONLY TRUTH!
Thomas Sawicki said
Hello Gail,
I have been lurking on TOD for quite some time and just read your article on the limits to growth. I published a three part series in the journal Quest (a magazine for members of Global Underwater Explorers)a couple of years ago entitled Growth and Sustainablility: An Ecological Perspetive. I have these articles in PDF format and Quest would not mind if they were released to The Oil Drum. If you are interested in seeing them I would be happy to email the PDF’s to you for your review.
As a short biography I have a Ph.D. in Ecological Sciences from Old Dominion University and currently work as a biology professor at Spartanburg Community College in Spartanburg S.C.
Best,
Tom
Murray Duffin said
Gail, I am a lurker in disagreement with your March TOD piece on the economic impact of peak oil. I hoped to write a detailed reply, but for various valid reasons cannot find the time. Also I don’t know how to submit a contribution to TOD. As a result I have come up with the following quick summary of another scenario that I feel is more likely than yours. Please give it due consideration.
USA present production is >5mb/d. Running that down carefully and working over all of our old fields with modern technology should provide 2-3 mb/d for at least 30 years. Canadian tar-sand can provide us with 2-3 mb/d for the foreseeable future by 2015 or so.. The Bakken shales should have recoverable oil of >20 Gb, and can likely supply 2-3 mb/d for > 20 years, starting in 20 years starting in say 10 years. We should be able to maintain imports of >2 mb/d for decades. Biofuels of all kinds can easily provide 1 mb/d for as long as we need. That adds up to 60% of present consumption. Our imports ex-Canada can drop from the present 13 mb/d to 2 mb/d over 15-20 years, while we increase fuel use efficiency by factor 3 and we can continues to grow our economy at a modest rate, giving us some decades to evolve to a no growth economy. Trip efficiency and intelligent conservation can provide a cushion as needed of up to 4 mb/d during the transition. This scenario allows for non-Canadian imports dropping 8%/yr for 20 years while we make the needed adjustments. Even staying 100% with ICEs we can triple automotive fuel efficiency. Hybrids, BEVs, switch to rail, etc., will provide the needed additional efficiency for trucks and planes to get the entire transport sector to >3x.
As global warming ceases to be an issue, and scarcity/price bite, we will open all of the off-limits prospects to development.
Tom L said
The IEA has a world oil survey available as a free download showing oil flow of products by country.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/surveys/oilsurv.pdf
RJ said
I’m curious where you’re coming up with all of this information.
outtanames999 said
Well, the only comment I have is, good stuff on oil, but now what do you know about credit markets because the oil bubble has subsided and the issue of finite quantities has shifted to credit markets which are seizing up.